This week, South African banks are chasing Kenya like it owes them money, SARB (SA Reserve Bank) played it safe with rates, and Access Bank SA reminded us that compliance isn't optional - it's the whole game.

The Week at a Glance

SARB held the repo rate at 6.75%. Four MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) members voted to hold; two wanted a 25 basis point cut. The quarterly projection model (SARB’s GPS) still points to gradual cuts through 2026 and 2027 - so patience, not panic.

ICASA's new data rollover rules have a loophole worth watching. Telcos must now roll over unused standard bundles - but promotional bundles are exempt. MTN, Vodacom and the rest can keep selling expiring deals. The regulator gave them a way out.

Access Bank SA lost its CEO, its chief compliance officer, and suspended its head of credit - all within weeks. The bank also had to suspend its forward exchange contracts business (agreements to buy or sell foreign currency at a fixed future rate used to hedge against currency volatility) after SARB got involved. Worth watching closely.

This Week's Big Stories

South African banks are racing to grab East Africa - and Kenya is the prize

Standard Bank, Nedbank and Absa all made moves in East Africa this week, and the competition is getting serious.

Standard Bank CEO Sim Tshabalala was in Nairobi meeting Kenya's National Treasury, the Central Bank of Kenya governor, and Safaricom. Standard Bank is Africa's largest bank by assets, but it ranks only seventh in Kenya by revenue. They want acquisitions to close that gap fast. Meanwhile, Nedbank agreed to buy a controlling stake in NCBA - a Kenya-based lender - for nearly R14 billion. And Absa picked up Standard Chartered's wealth and retail banking operations in Uganda.

Why does this matter? South African banks have long depended on the home market for the bulk of their earnings. The push into East Africa is a strategic bet on a younger, faster-growing region sitting at the crossroads of Africa and the Indian Ocean economies. Standard Bank now pulls over 40% of its earnings from outside South Africa ~ R4.2 billion from East Africa alone.

The catch: cross-border banking bets don't always pay off. Remember Nedbank's painful withdrawal from West Africa? It’s a recent reminder that execution risk is very real. Kenya is attractive, but getting it right is another matter.

Be smart: This seems a land grab, and the window for the best targets is closing. If you're anywhere in corporate or investment banking on the continent, the East African expansion race directly affects your competitive landscape.

Access Bank SA: a governance crisis in real time

Access Bank SA - the South African arm of one of Nigeria's largest lenders - is having a very bad month. CEO Sandile Shabalala is leaving in March, less than two years into the job. Chief compliance officer Mariska van der Veen has departed. Head of credit Subhash Maharaj was suspended in December. The previous CEO, Sugendhree Reddy, also lasted less than two years.

Zoom Out: Access Bank entered South Africa in 2021 by buying a controlling stake in Grobank. Since then, the bank suspended its forward exchange contracts and swaps business (basically buying currency at a fixed rate) after what it called "updated regulatory requirements." The suspension followed governance lapses flagged by SARB. The executive turnover itself had been identified as a control deficiency in the bank's 2022 internal controls report.

The group is bringing in Nigerian executives to stabilise things and apparently the departures were "individual career decisions." That may be true - but in banking, compliance failures compound quickly if they aren't addressed at the root.

What’s Next? The real story here is how SARB responds. South Africa's regulator has been tightening its grip on foreign-owned banks. How it handles Access Bank could set the tone for the next wave of West African banks looking to enter the market.

Policy Watch

The Scoop

Ninety One and Sanlam are completing their mega asset management deal on Monday. The South African component closed on 2 February, bringing R400 billion in AUM (assets under management - the total value of investments a firm manages on behalf of clients) under Ninety One's roof. Ninety One becomes Sanlam's primary active investment manager for the next 15 years. The Competition Tribunal approved it in September with transformation conditions attached.

South Africa now leads all of Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa in institutional assets. Pension funds, unit trusts and insurers collectively manage over $1 trillion - more than 230% of GDP. No other country in the region comes close. So it’s not just Rugby we’re #1 at.

MTN and Airtel are both struggling to sell mobile money in Nigeria, despite having massive customer bases. In 2022, 92% of MTN Nigeria's fintech revenue came from airtime lending - mobile money transactions contributed just 2.9%. Fintechs like OPay and PalmPay dominate with 10 million and 15 million daily active users respectively. The telcos arrived too late.

But Airtel Africa plans to list Airtel Money in the first half of 2026. The mobile money unit has 44.3 million users across 14 markets, with annualised transaction volumes hitting $146 billion. A serious test of investor appetite for African fintech at scale.

PayPal is planning its return to Africa in 2026, this time through alliances with local fintechs like Paga, rather than going it alone. The continent's fintech leaders project a shift from chasing outside investment to attracting it. If you’ve ever use Paypal, you know what a welcome change this is.

Gold surged past $4,400 per ounce in January, up from $2,800 at the start of 2025. For South Africa - one of the world's largest gold producers - the price surge boosts foreign exchange reserves and fiscal headroom. Bank of America projects it could push the country towards a current account surplus.

Startup Spotlight: NowPay

Cairo, Egypt · Founded 2019 · Payroll & Financial Wellness

NowPay raised $20 million to enter Saudi Arabia - and the structure of the deal is worth studying. Rather than fighting through Saudi regulatory complexity alone, NowPay formed a joint venture called NowAccess with Tasheel, Saudi Arabia's second-largest consumer finance provider. Tasheel takes 75%; NowPay keeps 25%. The capital funds local engineering, product localisation, and market entry.

NowPay's core product is earned wage access (EWA) - letting workers access part of their salary before payday without taking on a loan. The JV model sidesteps the regulatory bottlenecks that typically slow foreign fintechs entering the Gulf.

Toolkit

Why fintechs are winning in Nigeria while telcos dominate elsewhere Cornell Business School's analysis of how regulatory architecture determines who wins the mobile money game across Africa. Sharp reading for understanding the Nigeria vs. Kenya dynamic.

What's next for African fintech? 5 leaders share their 2026 expectations Techpoint Africa's roundup on cross-border expansion, stablecoins, and regulatory maturity. A good pulse check on where the smart money is looking.

On This Day

1966 - The Soviet Luna 9

Feb 3 - 1966, The Soviet Luna 9 spacecraft makes the first soft landing on the Moon and sends images from the surface, a showcase of systems engineering, telemetry, and remote data transfer that foreshadows the infrastructure mindset behind modern digital networks and payments rails.